Notably, 69 political parties are to participate in today’s election in Kogi and Bayelsa states. Though 45 political parties are fielding candidates in Bayelsa, while 24 candidates are in the governorship race in Kogi state, the contest in these two states is obviously between the candidates of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and People’s Democratic Party (PDP).
From the record of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), about 2.4 million registered voters will determine the fate of these elections. Interestingly, while the PDP is the ruling party in Bayelsa, the APC controls Kogi, hence the jostle to dominate each other’s territory.
PDP seeks fresh starts in Kogi
As predicted by many political pundits, the incumbent governor of Kogi state, Yahaya Bello hails from Okene LGA in the Central Senatorial District, won the All Progressives Congress (APC) governorship primary election in the state. Bello who polled a total of 3,091 votes to defeat his closest rival, Babatunde Irukera who polled 109 votes, obviously emerged against all odds and tagged his campaign “let’s do more.”
This is the first political battle for the man, who became governor in 2015 on a platter of gold, following the death of the former state Governor and APC’s candidate in the 2016 governorship election, Prince Audu Abubakar.
Notably, analysts are of the view that many odds are likely to constitute stumbling block for the candidate of the APC in today’s election. They are of the view that way he manages the state in the last four years will no doubt impact full on his chances in the November 16 poll.
While political analysts that are familiar with Kogi politics observed that the power of incumbency, federal might and the recent bailout fund approved by President Muhammadu Buhari are the strengths of the embattled Kogi state governor.
Another step that may work in Bello’s favour in today’s election is the running mate, Edward Onoja. The trained banker is arguably the most influential politician in today’s Kogi east, a senatorial district that largely determines who gets what in any political contest.
Speaking on the strength of Governor Bello, a social critic Chief Mohammed Andah said the reconciliation within the APC that led to Hon. James Faleke and his supporters to join Bello’s campaign will certainly swell the votes of the APC in the western senatorial district and the east where most Audu/Faleke political members resided.
On his weakness the social critics said the general perception that Bello’s government did not perform in the area of infrastructure development and the prolong staff screening that led to non-payment of staff salaries for months may work against his success at the poll.
Another contender, the candidate of the PDP Engineer Musa Wada, whom many Nigerians including political analysts had underrated his chances defeated a former governor, Captain Idris Wada, Senator Dino Melaye, representing Kogi West in the National Assembly, and son of the former governor, Abubakar Muhammed Ibrahim.
Wada, who tagged his campaign manifesto “a fresh start” hails from Igala in Kogi East, is an in-law to former governor, Ibrahim Idris and a brother to the other former governor, Captain Idris Wada is a proof to the testimony that no aspirant or candidate is an underdog in a free, fair and credible election.
Obviously, his Igala kinsmen are likely going to give him valuable numerical advantage over the incumbent. However, a great threat to his chances in today’s poll is the division among PDP bigwigs in the state and the zone.
According to Sulieman Abubakar, “Engr Musa Wada is a beginner, is a novice, is a walkover, he’s structural defective in Kogi east politics, this and that. Some of these new direction sycophants on social space called supporters are not good students of history in Kogi politics.
“Was Alhaji Ibrahim Idris not a novice and a beginner in 2003 when he defeated the late Almighty Prince Abubakar Audu? Was Governor Yahaya Bello (GYB) has his fondly called not a novice and a beginner in 2015 when he gave late Prince Abubakar Audu his money and fame in 2015 primary that saw him came second and as fate will have it today become a governor?
“Engr Musa Wada defeated a former governor with structure, defeated a son of a former governor and a political godfather, he also defeated a two-time rep and two-time senator to click the party’s ticket. With all these you still think he does not stand any chance in today’s poll. His chance is as bright as a star.
PDP, APC chances in Bayelsa
Interestingly, the candidate of the PDP Senator Douye Diri, who hails from Kolokuma/Kolokuma in Bayelsa Central Senatorial district, is enjoying the full support of incumbent Governor, Seriake Dickson, as a member of the governors ‘Restoration Political Group’.
Also widely believed among Bayesian, Diri has adequate experience to govern the state, having served as the commissioner, House of Representatives member and presently a senator. So the PDP candidate is banking on his experience and support from the governor’s political family to attract more votes to him.
However, analysts believe that the crisis which rocked the party after his emergence leading to the departure of many grassroots politicians to the APC may affect his chances. Aside this, the inability of the incumbent governor to pay Bayelsa civil servants salary consistently as at when due, poor infrastructural development during his administration and Dickson’s disrespectful attitude towards former President Goodluck Jonathan in governance and party affairs among others would to a large extent discourage some voters from casting their ballots for the PDP candidate. Because they believe a vote for Diri, is a vote for the continuation of all the Dickson’s ‘atrocities’.
Lyon’s advantage
On the other hand, the APC candidate, David Lyon, is banking on his philanthropic gestures over the years which have endeared him to the people. Lyon, the oil surveillance contractor for multinational companies working in the state, has used the contract to empower many people in the state through provision of jobs and empowerment of youths, women and other people, attracting enormous support and admiration across the state.
Being the candidate of the ruling party at the centre will also give Lyon the needed resources and the federal might to coast home to victory. Also, the support of the former governor of the state, Chief Timipre Sylva, who influenced many votes for the APC during the presidential election and also delivered one seat in the State Assembly for the party in the area is no doubt an added advantage to the APC candidate in today’s election.
Expectation is that it is going to be a close contest for the two parties and their candidates in the 8 local government areas in Bayelsa state.
While Diri enjoys about 80 per cent support from Sagbama, Kolokuma/Opokuma, the APC candidate is very popular in Southern Ijaw, Nembe and Brass. Both candidates may share votes from Yenagoa, Ekeremor and Yenagoa local governments, while the faceoff between Dickson and Jonathan’s kinsmen may give Lyon 60 to 70% of the votes in Ogbia.
APC’ll win Bayelsa, Kogi
The acting National Secretary of the APC, Chief Victor Giadom, said all the indices in both states have been positive for the APC, adding that the party will win in the two states.
He said: “First, I hope you are aware of the crisis in the Bayelsa PDP, to the extent that cabinet commissioners and other appointees of the present government in Bayelsa are finding their way into the APC. That is a clear manifestation of what will be the outcome of the November 16 election in that state.
“For us in the APC, we are very convinced that with our candidate, David Lyon, our party is well-positioned to capture Bayelsa state.
“We have no worry about what the outcome will be because democracy or election is about the people. It is the collective decision of the people of Bayelsa that will prevail and looking at what is happening in Bayelsa, it is obvious that Bayelsans are tilting towards the APC.
“They have tried the PDP for a long time and they appear not to be convinced any longer than that is where to be; so they have emptied themselves into our own party and we are very sure of victory.
Speaking further he said: “For Kogi, we have been able to put everybody together and the party has put a reconciliation meeting in place with aspirants in the party in the state. Everybody is now on board, by the grace of God and we feel come November 16, our party will win Kogi State. Kogi and Bayelsa are up for the APC.”
Similarly, the APC National Publicity Secretary, Lanre Issa Onilu, assured that the party will do very well in the governorship elections in Bayelsa and Kogi, noting that the chances are better for the party in Kogi because of the works done by Governor Yahaya Bello.
He, however, charged the stakeholders in Bayelsa to gird their loins for the party to have a brilliant outing in the state, stating: “I can comment more competently on Kogi because I understand what is going on in Kogi and I know that Kogi is stable for us.
“I have no problem with it, I know we are going to win by God’s grace and by works on ground, we are poised to win Kogi landslide.
“This is also because Governor Yahya Bello has done very well notwithstanding what you see in the media, the situation on ground in Kogi gives us confidence.
“For Bayelsa, if the stakeholders involved do the right thing, we don’t have any reason not to win Bayelsa.”
APC can’t score 20 per cent votes
The PDP has boasted that the APC and their governorship candidates cannot score up 20 percent of the votes in the Kogi and Bayelsa governorship elections, respectively.
The PDP National Publicity Secretary, Kola Ologbondiyan, claimed that the APC would also fail to attain the statutory 25 per cent of the votes in two-thirds of local governments of the states, as it cannot boast of genuine followership having failed to consolidate any foothold in the two states.
He said, “This is so because it is overwhelmingly evident that the PDP has the highest demography of members, supporters and volunteers in all the electoral units, wards and local governments, ready for the polls and not even the APC’s recourse to violence, blackmail, manipulations, and rituals can sway the resolve of the people in both states.
“Moreover, there is already a consensus that APC’s candidates; the anti-people Governor Yahaya Bello of Kogi state, as well as unskilled David Lyon of Bayelsa state, are no match for PDP’s versatile Engr. Musa Wada and cerebral Senator Douye Diri’s popularity in their respective states, PDP noted.
“In Bayelsa, the APC, having no toehold, is almost non-existent as the people are already rallied behind our candidate, Senator Diri, in their collective quest to consolidate on the good governance entrenched by Governor Seriake Dickson.”
Allegation of vote buying
Less than 24 hours to the opening of polls for the November 16, 2019, Kogi State Governorship election, the Centre for Democracy Development, CDD says there are indications that a lot of money has been set aside for vote-buying on Saturday.
A report from CDD Election Analysis Centre (EAC) issued on Friday indicated already there has been the distribution of gift items such as Ankara textile materials and rice in Lokoja and Koton Karfe Local Government Areas of the state. In a statement signed by the CDD Director, Idayat Hassan, the organization said accredited and trained observers have been keeping a close watch on the electoral process stating that ‘there are indications that a lot of money has been set aside for vote-buying on Saturday’.
In addition, CDD said the latest reports received from their observers indicate massive inducement of INEC Supervising, Presiding Officers (SPO) across the 21 Local Government Areas of the State.
The reports further indicate that one of the parties have made overtures, and has been inducing the SPOs with bribes USD1,000 to buy them over, and get them (the SPOs) to do their bidding on Election Day.
‘‘These reports were further confirmed from Bureau de Change (BDC) Operators within the State who were interviewed.
‘‘The BDC operators report that there has been an upsurge in the number of customers calling to change USD1000 to Naira.
‘‘The use of financial inducement to subvert the credibility of the electoral process is antithetical to the democratic ethos. ‘‘CDD condemns in the strongest possible terms all forms of inducement of poll officials. The Electoral Act 2010 (as amended) expressly frowns at bribery and all forms of inducement of poll officials. Specifically, Section 124(4) of the Electoral Act 2010 as amended states: “Any person who commits the offence of bribery is liable on conviction to a maximum fine of N500,000 or imprisonment for 12 months or both,” said CDD.
Election not war, Clark warns
National Leader and Chairman, Board of Trustees, Pan Niger Delta Forum (PANDEF), Chief Edwin Clark, has urged the people of Bayelsa state to avoid violence and vote peacefully in the governorship election in the state, stating that “election is not war.”
Clark in a press statement, yesterday, said, “As the governorship election holds in Bayelsa state tomorrow (today), I am appealing to the people of Bayelsa state to shun every act of violence, they should go out and vote peacefully, according to their conscience, without been coerced or intimidated.
“We do not want violence, the election is not war; it is not a matter of life or death. The present tension and killings in the state is not in the interest of the Ijaw people. Bayelsa is a miniature nation of all the Ijaws.
“Bayelsa State does not belong to any individual, so people should not behave as if the state is their personal property and nobody should act as if whatever he says is final. Politicians and their supporters should not destabilize the state for their own political benefits.
“We cannot be killing our people because of the personal interest of individuals. Ijaw people are the same; we are one and have always been very democratic and republican in attitude. For instance, the Late Harold Dappa-Biriye and his father contested the election, and the son won; it did not stop them from being father and son.
“The unfolding events are appalling, but I am happy that the election will hold, I, therefore, implore all the leaders of the political parties in the contest to understand that the state comes before every other person. They should know that without Bayelsa state, they will not exist and as such, they should consider Bayelsa interest first before their personal interests.
“I further call on all Ijaw sons and daughters in Bayelsa state to see that they perform their democratic duties by voting peacefully the candidate of their choice. Bayelsans know the records of those who have served the Bayelsa state in various capacities.
“We must realize that the interest of Bayelsa State and the Ijaw people is paramount. “PANDEF is also calling on the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC to remain unbiased in the conduct of the election while we urge the security agencies to demonstrate professionalism and detachment in the discharge of their duties before, during and after the election.
“That what happened in 2015 governorship election and the 2019 presidential elections should not be allowed again to rear its ugly head; where people were killed, where elections were held in some places and elections postponed in some places due to crisis and violence.
“If the election is held, democracy should be seen to be prevailing. We want a peaceful, free, fair and credible election. Results announced must be a true reflection of the votes of the people of Bayelsa state,” he said.
Ensure peace, fair play
Less than 24 hours to the governorship election in Bayelsa state, the former Ambassador and Permanent Secretary in the Federal Civil Service, Dr. Godknows Igali, Friday, urged Bayelsans to ensure peace and fair play.
Igali in a press statement advised governorship candidates of various political parties and their supporters, including the electorates to see themselves as one big family not to be divided because of electing a new governor.
Igali was one of the governorship aspirants under the platform of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, who was also former Secretary to the Bayelsa state government.
He said: “As we get set to travel to various locations around our beloved state to cast our votes to elect a new Governor for Bayelsa state on November 16, 2019, I want to call on all Bayelsans to do so in an atmosphere of peace, fraternal love and true kinship which we all share.
“In all modern democracies, elections have become necessary aspects of our social existence and experience. So there is nothing exceptionally new about Saturday, November 16, 2019.
“This election, which is indeed local, must, therefore, be seen and appreciated as a healthy contest within the wider family. We must remember our age-old Izon adage which says “binaotu anda, ongbo yainghamini” – a wrestling bout between siblings must not result in broken bones.
“This election is a routine game within the family which must come and go. We must, therefore, eschew wild desperation to hold on to power and influence or uncontrolled fight for office.
“Worse still is the rising spirit of hostility and easy resort to intimidation and violence. The crescendo of accusations and counter-accusations must be halted immediately. Oh Bayelsa Leaders and Politicians, let’s bridle our tongues and season our words!
“The sanctity of the lives of our youths and vulnerable groups must be upheld and protected. Let all take heed and remind others of our Ijaw inevitable retributive justice of DUWEIYAI!”
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